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Google is dead. Where do we go now?

Google is dead. Where do we go now?

tomjuggler

Comments (499)

  • SunshineTheCat
    I recently took someone to go and watch a hockey game. Been a little while but I personally played as a goalie myself.The person kept making the comment that she couldn't see/find the puck and it made it frustrating to watch.As a goalie, not being able to see the puck is pretty normal (especially with big bodies trying to screen you).What I told her was that what matters a lot more than where the puck is, is where it's going to be in about two seconds. But the next best thing is to know where the puck is now.If you can't see the puck then look at the players and as a last resort, look at the ref. 99% of the time they will be looking at the puck. Look where they're looking and soon enough it will appear.I think this applies very much to this whole Google question.The puck is gone (or on the way to the other side of the rink) and everyone is confused where it is or where it's going.Look where everyone is looking and you'll find your answer there. It may not be in the same form as Google adwords, but the game is the same. Leveraging attention.The tactics were different during the phonebook days (it was having your business start with the letter "A") as opposed to Google and will be different for the next thing as well.From what I can tell, everyone seems to be looking at chatbots and vertical, shortform video. Not sure how that plays out in terms of advertising, but in terms of the answer to this article's question, that seems like a good place to start.
  • senthil_rajasek
    I think the author intended the title to be,"Google Ads is dead, Where do I promote my business now?"When I hear "Google" I assume search, oof (sigh of relief).They mention running ads on tiktok or instagram but no mention of youtube ads...Also, In my own experience for my business ( also entertainment) I have found reddit ads to be useful.So my next steps would be, Reddit Ads Youtube Ads Instagram Ads Increase AI Visiblity [Edit: Added Instagram Ads, from a different comment]
  • fairity
    Surprised to see this upvoted because the takeaway is completely incorrect, and based on the anecdotal evidence of one advertiser.As someone who spends seven figures every month on Google ads, what’s much more likely to be happening here is that the individual advertiser is either getting outcompeted or they’re executing ads poorly.Google ads revenue in the US continues to grow every quarter. And, since advertisers will generally invest in ads until the last dollar is break even, it’s likely that the total value advertisers unlock through Google ads is growing as well. Whether that’s true or not, the notion that value generated for advertisers is “dead” is absurd.
  • fidotron
    I love knocking on Google, and have been doing so for longer than it was cool, but this sounds more like the business is no longer attractive than Google having become suddenly wildly ineffective.My anecdotal evidence is the smarter normies are increasingly allergic to screens. They only use them to watch stuff they hear about by some other means, but parents, for example, look for any excuse to keep their kids off the Internet, and largely they're better for it.
  • manoDev
    The web is dead, we replaced with portable cable TV where you scroll up to change channel.
  • rickcarlino
    The way people get information online is changing rapidly.I run a local makerspace. It is not quite the same thing as a local entertainment business, but there are certainly some similarities. We are local, and we are very event-based.For the last 10 years, the way we would get new members was to host Meetups. Meetups are slowly bringing in fewer members. When I ask tour guests how they found out about us, they recently started saying that they found us on ChatGPT. They did not know what a makerspace was but they explained their problem and ChatGPT presented our space as a local solution. This has been good for us because we offer something useful to the community but struggle to explain it. In the old days of search, this was a problem because many people were not using the correct phrase to describe what we are. That doesn’t matter anymore.How does a local business optimize for this though? I am not sure.
  • austinbaggio
    I can't find it, but there's a good graph that shows Google search decline in share to GPT, but it excludes Gemini. With Gemini, it stays relatively on par. That's pretty much the answer with where one goes. LLMs are higher intent than search could ever be, and they are closer to you selling to yourself than a store selling to you since they have all of your user context
  • delichon
    Push advertising sucks, but we can make pull much better by giving the user more control.Imagine a protocol to publish commercial offers for any given fragment of content addressable by URI. It would describe the details of some product or service and a set of proposed terms. We could surf the web looking for relevant content and publishing related offers. Various repositories would subscribe or not.A browser (extension or native) would optionally pull offers from selected repositories and have UI for the user to solicit/pull offers for any given piece of content styled to signal their existence, and to filter and sort them. To make it sustainable there needs to be revenue sharing with the content source(s).Are there existing projects like this?The same protocol could be used for independent commentary and other annotation.
  • giancarlostoro
    Well, there used to be altavista but it seems Yahoo bought them out. So I guess Yahoo?
  • mmmBacon
    I think Google’s search and ad business are at risk. Search has become such a mess that it’s become harder and harder to use to find quality results. It reminds me of Yahoo before Google in a way.I’m using ChatCPT or equivalent for 60% of my searches. The remaining 40% is just muscle memory. Of that 40% about half the time I regret using Google search due to the difficulty of finding the relevant result.I can see search users moving to ChatGPT or such and Googles Ad business suffering as a result and a general downward spiral of Google search.
  • hirpslop
    Logged on to say Kagi[1][1]not an employee, sponsor, or autonomous agent of the above company
  • ndarray
    Is this being on top of HN part of the writer's new non-google marketing strategy?
  • verelo
    It’ not Google that’s dead. It’s the economy in North American markets. I am finding conversion way down, clicks and impressions I’m still getting. People are just being way more fussy before handing over cash.Everyone i talk to is quoting the same time line, this started in September and it hasn’t returned to normal.Winter is coming.
  • tomjuggler
    A blog post lamenting the demise of Google Adwords.
  • brandon272
    Watching other people use Google, the predominant method of searching for information involves a query followed by getting their answer from the AI summary that appears above any search results.I'm not sure what impact this would be having on Adwords, but another commenter mentions that Google isn't hurting in the ad revenue department.
  • charlie0
    It's only going to get worse from here. Everything is trending towards zero for any kind of online service as it gets easier to make software with LLMs. There just simply won't any moat left.
  • AuthAuth
    Please go anywhere but the platforms I use. Go fill Tiktok up with ads. Any of the "mainstream" platforms inbuilt ad posts are a good bet. Or a marketing agency that will disguse it as organic content.
  • jondiggsit
    Isn’t it just AIs that have an agenda? That lie to you? That use a directive to persuade you to do / purchase something under the guise of authority?ChatGPT, etc. right now is the early web where everything was free and everyone wondered how it would make money.Soak it up because it won’t last long.
  • mmaunder
    Just trying to find out what this guy actually does is hard. It’s a page of links linking to another page of links, repeat. Where is the thing? The content? The product? It just feels a bit disconnected from patterns users expect and delivery mechanisms users are comfortable with in 2025. It’s almost a 1995 style pastiche of intent with no payoff.
  • thesquib
    Anecdotally it seems like a lot of people go to whatever LLM they have access to and ask it what to do. Surely the next frontier of advertising products is directly injecting recommendations into the response from the LLM. Or at least make the answer incorporate products and services somehow, similar to how influencers do paid content in a seamless way alongside their main content.
  • 6thbit
    Such thick tension in the air waiting for the first courageous company to place ads on their LLM chats and tools.They can spare their ad income falling for a while, but making the first move is always risky. Should they let openAI go first and fail?Where do you go now? You go make sure LLMs know about your site, you welcome the herds of bot crawlers and pray someone breaks the standstill before your business falters.
  • observationist
    Oh no, adtech is dying. I guess we'll all have to compete through quality of products and services and not gaming a rigged system designed to reward anything that maximizes the profit of the global surveillance adtech machine.This gives me warm fuzzy feelings. It's nowhere near good, but this is better than it was.
  • taikahessu
    Reminds me of a quote I once read of "marketing being a game of diminishing returns".When you find a working marketing solution, it's just a matter of time when it dries out, because of competitors and overall saturation.
  • mgaunard
    The old decentralized Internet is dying out and being replaced by a few apps under the total control of a few companies.I'm not sure much can be done about this. At least the physical world is still the same.
  • axelthegerman
    It never really worked. Most businesses just paid for customers that were going to or already found them anyways.Not saying ads don't work at all, they definitely increase awareness.
  • newman8r
    They recently changed the max results per page from 100 to 10 and they're suing serpapi. They've basically killed their google newspaper archive.Not happy with google.And it's become clear to me how little of the open web, and top 100k sites they've fully indexed, I used to have a lot more faith in them.
  • muppetman
    Might this not also be the fact that given the cost of living the world over, being able to afford a fancy party with entertainment like the poster provides is a luxury few can afford now? We used to eat out a lot more (Saturday lunch at a cafe I mean) and also used to get HelloFresh and other such services, but as the cost of them has gone up way faster than our salaries, we've had to reign them all back. I agree with the "Google is dying" sentiment for sure, but I also wonder how much is just being unable to afford nice things anymore.
  • pigpop
    Your business seems well suited to advertising through short form content so I wish you lots of success with transitioning away from Adwords.
  • riazrizvi
    Googles Search Ad revenue is dead, but the business is diversified and positioned for change. As of 2024:Search Ads and Partner Revenue = 230bn Youtube = 36bn Cloud = 40bnSay they drop 100bn on search revenue. How well are they positioned to convert their user platform and search crawling infrastructure onto Gemini, and introduce an advertising platform into LLMs to replace what they had? I imagine they are as well positioned as OpenAI.I would lose a lot of sleep if I paid out for puts on them.
  • czottmann
  • why-o-why
    Reminds me of the whale oil business being replaced by petroleum. Except the ad-based economy was effectively a google monopsony. I'm surprised the OP managed to make ad revenue for a decade, but to me at always seemed about casino-ish and snake-oily. A decade is impressive but I think we all knew where this was going. I think the question is: will another monopsony for ads arise or will it be content based only? It seems YouTUbe is poised to be the next google since more people watch YouTube than cable, so the audience is captive since there's no alternative (yes I realize Google owns YouTube). But that's still a parasitic economy sucking from google. "Where to go now?" depends on if another ad server can gain dominance, otherwise the answer is "nowhere".
  • crystal_revenge
    > I am AI assisted, very fast!I sometimes think people really don't understand the value-add of AI (and I say this as someone on the less hyperbolic end of the "AI-hype" spectrum). If your service to me can be accomplished by AI "very fast"... I don't need you anymore. AI provides a generic problem solving interface where non-experts can leverage the power of the AI to solve a task they previously couldn't have so long as they can describe it well.I've had multiple cases at work or other places where I've been presented with something as the stakeholder and been told "I used AI to make this!" Great! Next time I'll use AI to make it and save myself the overhead/cost of having work with someone else. I don't see a lot of value in explaining a problem to you so that you can then re-explain it to an LLM.When people show me they've used AI to complete a task I used to have to do I'm delighted, and, more often then not, proven my value when they come back weeks later asking for help untangling the mess they've made. But, I'm equally delighted in the cases where they are successful using AI to replace things I used to be tasked with. Despite the AI hype, I find myself busier than ever.
  • jackofspades
    If you believe markets to be a future discounting mechanism, then they're sure as hell saying Google "figured something out" in the last year, even vs OpenAI [1][1] https://x.com/firstadopter/status/1993464859376468102/photo/...
  • sam0x17
    I would say Kagi but they need to start doing their own indexing for that to be a real future
  • emodendroket
    I think this article title misled me a bit... Google seems to be fine but it's no longer driving traffic through Ad Words. I think that in particular is really getting messed up by AI since people often don't go to any Web site once an AI agent answers their question.
  • phillipseamore
    That site loosing revenue mentioned in the post (https://bigtop.co.za/) doesn't even load for me.
  • tensor
    I think it's time for a new way of discovering products. My ideal would be some sort of site that I can go to, to find services and products in my local area. There could also be national and international sections, with user ranked news of new interesting products in given categories.For example, with video games I can go to sites like www.rockpapershotgun.com or others, or forums related to games, to see what the new products coming out. That's perfect in my world. No ads in my search, no ads in my email, no ads in youtube or whatever. But when I'm interested in seeing what's new, I can, on my terms, go and check out the new products.
  • travisgriggs
    > I am AI assisted, very fast!This feels like one of the most surreal things I have read in a while, believing that the blog is authentically written by a real person. I can't put my finger on why.I do feel like it's maybe time to rewatch BSG.
  • thornjm
    Anecdotally, this article seems to match with what I am witnessing regarding browsing habits. I am planning a big trip with others and everything is being found via social media apps; destination ideas, experiences, cafes, accommodation, etc.
  • cube00
    Google Ads started charging me $5 per click on low traffic search keywords this week, meanwhile YouTube ads are still 20 cents a click (presumably to keep up with Meta)They're having a laugh if they think we'll keep paying that for no actual leads.
  • weinzierl
    I don't know if Google is dead, but what I know is this:For the first time since 1995 my default method to research information on the web does not involve any traditional search engine anymore.
  • tedk-42
    As it should be with all things.I pivoted away from google search (duckduckgo instead primarily) but even then, the majority of "information" I'm looking for goes instead to chatgpt.
  • saltysalt
    There is always chaos when a central authority fails, and the "main home page for the Internet" model has definitely failed. AI killed it.How long before we see sponsored ads placed alongside prompt answers?
  • alexpadula
    “Research shows” Lool!! Ask anyone in their teens or 20s even 30s. They’ll all answer what you did in the article. Short attention spans are ruling and so are those social media applications you mentioned.
  • mgaunard
    Is there such a thing as a good ad? I've always blocked them on all platforms.Looking at instagram where I don't block anything, most of what it suggests to me are soft porn or soft scams (generic chinese dropships marketed as a unique innovation).
  • neomantra
    I know very little about online marketing, but my Googler marketing friend told me that just 6 months ago everybody would Google search three word terms: “best Chinatown dumpling”But now people Google search: “my boyfriend is coming to town for the holidays and we are going to Chinatown and I want to have delicious dumplings with him because it was what we had on our first date, where should we go?”So he now works to sell AdWords properly in that environment. I am wondering how or if OP took that into account with their new spend. What are other people doing?I’ve also heard (probably via post+comments here on HN) that the new SEO is making tons of AI slop info pages on the site, not for humans but for AI crawlers to slurp, and then refer from prompts.
  • alexpotato
    It wouldn't surprise me if physical advertising, as mentioned in the post, makes a comeback. Especially coupled with magazines etc apparently making a comeback too.Also, a lot of ads now have QR codes so you can tell which physical ads are driving versus traffic versus those that aren't.e.g. the "half of my advertising is a waste but I don't know which half" is not true anymore if you are using specific QR codes per location/advertisement.
  • anon
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  • amelius
    If google is dead, I sure hope they won't sell my gmail and google drive data to the highest bidder.
  • jrjeksjd8d
    One anecdote, but I have a brick and mortar business and Adwords leads have fallen off a cliff year over year. Since AI stuff started getting pushed harder we've gotten fewer impressions and fewer conversions. Some of it is economic headwinds but also Google is just a black box we throw money into and pray it will send us business.
  • dnw
    The author should try Google Local Services Ads instead of Google Ads. I think Google cannibalizes Google Ads with LSA.
  • cronelius
    psa, "is comprised of" is almost never correct. "comprises" means "is composed of". so when people say X is comprised of Y they really mean "X comprises Y" or "X is composed of Y"
  • kachurovskiy
    Try contacting YouTube creators in your area. Much more cost efficient than any other kinds of ads especially if you pick channels with your target audience IF you can actually get creators to promote you (most won't reply).
  • sans_souse
    Sorry in advance if this comes off as hostile, that's not my intent. I am genuinely wondering: You're in the business of advertising? And you're upset that Google isn't your golden goose anymore?
  • SirMaster
    Apparently you should be getting ready to buy ad campaigns from LLM companies because they are going to inject ads into the responses soon. Young people are using LLMs like crazy in my experience.
  • xthe
    Google isn’t dead, but it’s no longer the single answer. Even Mark Zuckerberg recently acknowledged how fast Google is improving, which explains why Meta is pushing AI harder. Still, competing shouldn’t mean replacing what already works.
  • eagsalazar2
    Is this really about Tiktok or about AI and how people are consuming the web? Used to be all web, then web+Tiktok,etc, now only AI+Tiktok, etc? I think I go to normal websites way less than I used to. Maybe everyone is doing that?
  • mattmaroon
    I work in private events and the answer is definitely Facebook. Facebook ads have been better for quite some time. Targeting is a harder but also the CPCs are a lot lower so you can spray and pray a bit more.
  • layer8
    The mainstream leaving Google search and the general web would be a chance for both getting better again. A new equilibrium will establish itself one way or the other.
  • anon
    undefined
  • mikelitoris
    Kagi
  • Liron
    Wait I know Google search to content sites is largely dead, but I thought Google ads still worked fine.
  • paxys
    Maybe someone should tell Google.
  • hollowturtle
    Genuine question: how is Google not losing a tons of money yet?
  • bix6
    How long have you lived in Durban? Nice surfing pics.
  • kunley
    Where do you go know - maybe realize that ads make everyone around miserable and with this bitter understanding go through painful but necessary process of finding other means of earning money.PS. Seriously.
  • rolph
    -to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to boldly go where no man has gone before.
  • wouldbecouldbe
    An instant drop in 50% means something else is off. The shift to llm's has been happening already for the last years.Its more likely their your ranking dropped. Or a competitor got ahead of you. Google is still main source of leads for service businesses.If you are old & previously ranked well the LLM's will also mention you similar to how Google did.
  • nonameiguess
    I'm glad as hell not to run a business and never plan to, but it's interesting to think as a consumer where I would try to get information like this. Guy's running a service that provides in-person entertainment for events and parties, seemingly things like clowns and magicians, maybe small-time bands or what-not.Seemingly you don't want to target children directly. If they ask their parents for specific entertainment at a party, they're going to ask for entertainers they know, not companies acting as brokers and middlemen. They might want a particular clown (but probably not) but will never want a particular local vendor of clowns. You need to target the parents for that. If it were me doing the buying, I'd probably prioritize word of mouth recommendations if anyone had such, and otherwise for a large enough event like a wedding or graduation party, I'd look to professional planners. Assuming that's any kind of widespread pattern, you'd want to target strong relationships with planners rather than trying to advertise directly to consumers.Did people really ever search Google to find party entertainment, and then ignore the search results and use the ads instead? Let alone Tik Tok videos? I guess I'm out of touch enough that the answer can be yes and I'm just that clueless about how small businesses work, but all the comments talking about LLM chatbot services are tripping me out. Y'all would ask ChatGPT who to hire for your kid's party?
  • kuon
    I consider ads to be a cancer I hope it will die in every possible way.
  • 1970-01-01
    GOOG +65% YTD. Opposite of dead.
  • m3kw9
    Because everyone asking AI to do websearch for them
  • reconnecting
    Perhaps, click fraud?Is there any new powerful platform/aggregator in your market?
  • semiinfinitely
    maybe the issue is that you site bigtop.co.za literally does not load
  • macinjosh
    Judging by the post this guy advertises his kids entertainment business to young people. With recent crackdowns on age verification etc. it could be his ads are no longer reaching the audience they used to.
  • handfuloflight
    Your campaign on Google is dead.
  • deadbabe
    Here's the business model in a nutshell: If you want AI to recommend your business for some purpose, you must pay to have it included in the training corpus. And you will pay fees every time those vectors get used for outputs. And if you don't pay, you don't get mentioned.
  • elorant
    Contextual ads is the answer. You sell shoes, go and advertise on fashion related sites. I don't want to see a shoe ad while I'm browsing a gaming site just because I did some relative search a week ago. It's so fucking annoying and I never understood why Google never bothered to try some alternative too. I don't mean completely replace behavioral targeting but at the very least try some contextual one too.
  • DinakarS
    the site is loading forever now. hn crashed it hehe
  • austinpena
    A few things to determine if what you're experiencing is actually Google "being dead"1. Check your search volume. Use Google Trends or the method I will share below. 2. Check how you spent in December vs how you spent during a previously great time. Understand if it's a volume issue or a conversion issue 3. See if anyone new entered your auction. If they did, find out what they're saying-- 1a) Search VolumeChecking search volume: In the era of broad match, this is one of the most underrated approaches to diagnosing issues. Take a look at your `search exact match impression share` relative to your impressions on a few of your top keywords. Then measure out if search volume for your business is actually decreasing. Then, use the following rubric to diagnose futher:1. Not decreasing. Move on to the next item 2. 5-10% decrease and competitive auction. If you have a decrease AND a competitive auction, a 20% drop in efficiency could be explained. 3. 5-10% decrease and a not-so-competitive auction. If this is the case, the drop in volume may not be what's causing your issues.-- 1b) Click volumeCheck your exact match impression > click rate. Similar to the last approach, this helps diagnose if there are SERP feature changes which could decrease the amount of clicks you're receiving despite demand remaining flat.If this is the case, take a look at the SERP and find the new winners.-- 2) Segment comparisonCompare December YOY and see what changed. Are you serving to a different age range? Different search term mix? Increased spend to search partners? Are the headline combinations which are serving different?-- 3) Auction changesHave you checked your auction insights? Are new competitors being more or less aggressive? If so, what are their headlines? Are they offering an easier booking experience than you are?And... if Google is actually dead, you might try:1. Meta ads. Turn off audience network, make sure you've got the conversions API set up, and see what happens. Expect leads to be lower intent. Make your creative dead simple. "If you're looking for kid party entertainment in Northdene..." Start with $20/day optimizing for leads.2. Improve your form. I see typeform-style-forms do better than the long one you have.3. (Maybe) If you don't already track `closed (won)` conversions into your google ads account, that could help. I find when I start tracking which searches turn into deals, I can restructure my account to de-prioritize the junk leads.4. (Maybe) Add a soft form to each of your service pages. Basically an embedded form which starts by asking people softball questions like "How Old Are The Kids At Your Party." Once people start a form they're much more likely to complete it, even if the questions are very basic.5. (Maybe) Add a way to give a phone call. Phone call leads convert 30-50% better in my experience. But, this isn't an option for every
  • ramon156
    Can we also talk about how dogshit YouTube Search has been the last 2 years? Some videos have turned to shorts, but they're not searchable through their search API, making the feature pretty useless.
  • tomjuggler
    Great, now my server is crashing again. I thought Cloudflare was supposed to take care of this stuff
  • blauditore
    Now I wonder how long until AI chat tool are riddled with ads, and with shitty content because of people trying to game them just like they've been gaming search engines.
  • cat_plus_plus
    You become a trusted source of data for AI chatbots (hopefully in somewhat ethical way for end users). Look into generative language optimization.
  • butler14
    Google and Google Ads are not one and the same.The jump from the op's "i screwed up my google ads campaigns" to "Research shows that many young people are getting their information from short video platforms like TikTok"....i mean, c'mon
  • akoboldfrying
    Another explanation is that when the cost of living is high, people reduce their spending on entertainment. If that's the case, no amount of advertising will materially shift your bottom line.
  • devhouse
    [dead]
  • LePetitPrince
    [dead]
  • verdverm
    my vote is for ATProtolet's take back the interwebs and have a single account where all apps store their data about you, which you can move around and also swap out clients for any data without companies blocking you
  • hyperhello
    Look, the 90's Internet isn't cool anymore. Sorry. Things are cool for a while and then they're not.Franchises die. It's still cool to say "The originals were really cool", and always will be, but now we're talking about now. Star Wars is uncool. There are people who sort of automatically praise it and subtly put down those who don't like they're aligned with a magnetic field, sure, but they're in their own world. Indiana Jones and Ghostbusters are uncool now. Star Trek is almost there. AI is not cool and never will be. Tiktok is cool, but soon everything that is uncool will descend upon it.Sorry. Bananas blacken and apples get spots. Time moves on.Downvoting isn't cool. Reply instead.
  • dana321
    Haha no wonder, check out the website its dodgy as f. https://bigtop.co.za/