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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

krustyburger

Comments (117)

  • 1vuio0pswjnm7
  • abetusk
    "Why prediction markets aren't popular" [0] gives some compelling arguments (to me) about why prediction markets haven't caught on and probably never will.As I understand it, the main argument is that for prediction markets that aim to incentivize the thing they're predicting, better to invest in the thing directly. Otherwise, "prediction markets" are successful precisely when they can't influence the outcome, like sports betting.I remember finding the election betting interesting last presidential election, but I also remember that it was spiked when Musk invested to change the odds.[0] https://worksinprogress.co/issue/why-prediction-markets-aren...
  • Buttons840
    This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society.But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe?It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it.Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably.If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last election, just wait until next election when he also has $100,000 on the line...
  • giantg2
    What is the legality for US residents?Right now Polymarket is subject to a federal agreement that they don't let US people participate. Apparently this is just a checkbox for the user to attest to. They don't even do IP geolocation, never mind payment checks.So it's currently illegal for them to run this in the US. But is it illegal for users to participate?
  • AbstractH24
    Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading?Fool and his money are quickly separated…
  • stickfigure
    The only material objection mentioned in the article is that prediction markets are easy to manipulate.Well, only if they are thinly traded. If they get mentioned a lot more on CNN and CNBC, that is likely to change.
  • anon
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  • networkadmin
    The whole nation is eaten up by gambling and other vices at this time. It's not the first time such a thing has happened in a nation's history. Generally it occurs just after widespread monetary debasement and just before major, world shaking disasters. (You Are Here.)Reference: Andrew Dickson White (first president of Cornell) "Fiat Money Inflation In France", published 1896:"The government now began, and continued by spasms to grind out still more paper; commerce was at first stimulated by the difference in exchange; but this cause soon ceased to operate, and commerce, having been stimulated unhealthfully, wasted away.Manufactures at first received a great impulse; but, ere long, this overproduction and overstimulus proved as fatal to them as to commerce. From time to time there was a revival of hope caused by an apparent revival of business; but this revival of business was at last seen to be caused more and more by the desire of far-seeing and cunning men of affairs to exchange paper money for objects of permanent value. As to the people at large, the classes living on fixed incomes and small salaries felt the pressure first, as soon as the purchasing power of their fixed incomes was reduced. Soon the great class living on wages felt it even more sadly.Prices of the necessities of life increased: merchants were obliged to increase them, not only to cover depreciation of their merchandise, but also to cover their risk of loss from fluctuation; and, while the prices of products thus rose, wages, which had at first gone up under the general stimulus, lagged behind. Under the universal doubt and discouragement, commerce and manufactures were checked or destroyed. As a consequence the demand for labor was diminished; laboring men were thrown out of employment, and, under the operation of the simplest law of supply and demand, the price of labor--the daily wages of the laboring class--went down until, at a time when prices of food, clothing and various articles of consumption were enormous, wages were nearly as low as at the time preceding the first issue of irredeemable currency."
  • keiferski
    I’m increasingly convinced that the single most important concept to understand in the 21st century is Chesterton’s Fence:"Chesterton's fence" is the principle that reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._K._Chesterton#Chesterton's_...Gambling isn’t a new problem, but apparently we thought it would turn out differently this time, for some vague unclear reason.I think the simplified version of that reason is: no one really believes in anything anymore, except in the value that acquiring money by any means necessary is a good thing.
  • koolba
    > A billionaire congressional candidate can’t just send a check to Quinnipiac University and suddenly find himself as the polling front-runner, but he can place enormous Polymarket bets on himself that move the odds in his favor.Maybe not with a specific pollster depending on their scruples, but you can definitely pay to be part of the poll. And that’s the first step to getting any stats whatsoever.
  • vlark
    Stop calling them "prediction markets" and start calling them what they really are: corporatized bookies.
  • d--b
    since financial speculation exists, the news has been about gambling.Regular people just didn’t know it cause the ticket to entry was to expensive.
  • jonstewart
    Doesn’t seem like slow-walking so much as a mad-rush. I saw a Kalshi ad on tv last night.
  • anon
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  • nullc
    Why is polymarket worse than cell phone games? At least polymarket essentially self identifies as gambling and isn't specifically marketed to children.
  • kledru
    chaos-for-profit incentive is what terrifies me
  • bluecalm
    Isn't Polymarket very low stakes? For example "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027" market (the main one for this issue) has only 14m USD volume. This is like 2 orders of magnitude less money than is bet on El Classico 2 times a year.There are risks connected when prediction markets run wild but Polymarket ain't it. There is also utility. It has high predictive value (it beats polls for elections from a little sample I've looked at) and allows you to make better decisions.
  • cft
    If insiders trade, the market becomes more accurate, which is good for society. Like WikiLeaks. Thus the MSN panic, the legacy establishment wants Polymarket to follow Assange's path.
  • uoaei
    The internet is too connected and communication too instantaneous for Polymarket to be anything but a system to be gamed by those with money and influence.Bet appears on Polymarket? You have the ability to direct people and resources to enact the under? Congrats you're rich!
  • drob518
    The writer obviously hasn’t done any deep study of prediction markets and why they often provide greater insight than other polling techniques. Are they perfect? No. They predicted Hillary would win in 2016.