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Comments (920)

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  eykanal
  For those (like me) who don't know the authors, apparently they are well-published authors in the field of climate science whose work is very highly cited:https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C39&q=gra...Not a perfect measure of whether this is a reputable article but at least readers should know this isn't from some randos in a basement somewhere.
• Kiboneu
  Let’s not pretend anymore.The uncomfortable truth is that that people in affluent countries don’t want to change their lifestyle. Affluent countries are less affected by global warming than countries responsible for a fraction of global emissions. All the emissions from manufacturing follow suit.
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  ecshafer
  The issue with any significant steps to curbing the climate or environmental impacts with laws or treaties is always: But the economy. It creates an incentive where someone doesn't follow the laws, burn everything they can to accelerate their economy, and take industry from other countries.My proposal is thus: create a supranational treaty organization with a EPA like authority(or whatever the European equivalent is) that can inspect and fine companies in member organizations. Then any treaty members agree with the following conditions: The EPA can enter their nation freely, inspect, and are able to fine companies that break rules. Members send delegates to a session to create new rules democratically. And most importantly all members act as a cartel, imposing large tariffs on any country outside of the organization. So if US was in and Mexico was out, you couldn't just pollute in Mexico, without some massive tariff. This creates an economic incentive to be in and clean.
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  nancyminusone
  Don't kid yourself - we closed this one with "Won't Fix" a while ago."But what about <technology/option>?"No. Full stop. We're not going to do it, and we're not even going to apologize for it either.All we can do now is prepare, not that I've seen a lot on this front either.
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  afandian
  This is open access. No need to post a researchgate link.Here's the original: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6079807/v1
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  standeven
  The main driver of this is human-produced CO2, and there are meaningful ways to reduce usage.-Switch to an electric vehicle -Migrate from gas appliances (range, furnace, water heater) to electric (induction, heat pumps) -If your power grid isn’t clean, add rooftop or balcony solar -Encourage friends and family to do the same
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  sulam
  FWIW my personal assessment is that this acceleration is both real and largely out of our control. Models in the past did not attempt to account for non-anthropogenic carbon emissions, but as we experience further warming, most especially in the Arctic, feedback loops and tipping points mean that this (carbon emissions caused by “natural” processes) are becoming more evident. This is especially sensitive because a large proportion of such emissions are methane, which is a much more powerful greenhouse gas vs CO2, albeit with a much shorter expected effect time once airborne (~12 years). Consider also that warming is not uniform and the polar regions are warming significantly faster (3x) than lower latitudes, making permafrost melting a very significant climate tipping point. The last point I’ll mention is not about non-anthropogenic emissions but rather absorption. The world’s oceans have been a significant absorber of CO2 however that process is sensitive to temperature and is less effective as the planet warms, not to mention acidic ocean waters prevent shell formation, which is a minor but meaningful carbon sink all by itself.I’m of the opinion that direct air capture is the primary escape hatch we have for not hitting 3 or even 4C warming in the next 100-200 years, which mean major dieoffs in warm latitudes, even for humans, due to exceeding wet bulb limits. Oh and roughly 65M of sea level rise as the planet shifts to a snow/ice-free mode.
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  shashurup
  To be honest, looking at Paleogene climate reconstruction I believe it was the best time in earth history. The way things go shows us that all attempts to resist burning fossils are quite futile. It takes some kind of catastrophe to change people habits. The level of coordination required to achive the goal of lowering emissions looks unachievable to humanity. We have enough time to adapt, adaptation is more reasonable and pragmatic approach.
• taeric
  Wasn't this attributed pretty much directly to cleaning of the shipping lanes? With more direct sunlight on the ocean, we are getting warmer oceans. With warmer oceans, we get everything that goes along with that.I didn't see it mentioned in the article, though I did do a very brief read through. And it has been a while since I looked at the shipping lanes thing.I hasten to add this is not to claim we should not have cleaned the shipping lanes. I don't know enough to say on that front. My gut would be that it was still the correct move.
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  tgsovlerkhgsel
  The paper doesn't seem to account for the reduction in sulfur emissions from ships, which was widely reported to be the cause for some of the recent warming?
• chinathrow
  Companies are setting up constantly running gas turbines for powering AI datacenters - insanity.
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  shevy-java
  I think it is already pretty clear to everyone, save a few scientistis who keep on preaching "we can prevent this!!!" that global warming will continue. I am all for being more energy efficient and what not, but the reality of the situation is that there are factors that are orthogonal to this - as well as a few states that sabotage everyone else. The USA in particular; the US government is by far the biggest troublemaker here. China and India are also troublemakers because they are so huge, although to be fair, China also invested a lot into green energy.We need to adjust strategies here. The "zero emission" strategy failed; it is not practical. Politicians love them because they are in the media, but everyone sees that this strategy is not working. Same with carbon tax - it drove prices up but didn't really help much at all otherwise. We need to stop pursuing strategies that do not work here.
• TacticalCoder
  There's a huge hypocrisy in wanting others to pollute less, yet still have a lifestyle that pollutes, but just less than those polluting the most.I personally won't criticize people who take flights to go on vacation (I don't but I accept those who do). But I'll be pointing out the hypocrisy of those who take flights to go on vacation and yet want to micro-manage how others should live their lives so that they'd be "polluting less".Recently some infographic made the round for it showed the act a human can take and the pollution it generates. The reason it circulated a lot is because the first item was highly controversial: "having a kid". And yet there's lots of truth in that.For example my wife and I we got one kid and my wife is now in her forties and we won't have a second one. And I'll never ever take a single lesson about pollution from anyone who had two kids or more.I'm the one who don't fly. I'm the one who only had one kid. And I'm not criticizing other people's lifestyle and choices. But if you open your mouth, I'll point out the hypocrite you are if you either fly or had two kids or more.
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  jokoon
  Nothing will change until developed rich countries are starting to hurt.And I don't think it's going to hurt enough in 10 or 20 years.The pain will come slowly, people won't see it.It's like going back to the middle age so slowly, that the population don't realize or feel it.And honestly, wars and trump are making climate concerns so difficult to think about.
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  lunias
  It's my understanding that if you look at a large enough historical time window, although warming has accelerated recently (and we are in part to blame); the Earth is still relatively cool compared to historical averages.
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  lambdaone
  This is terrifying, and those fighting against stopping or reducing global warming should at this point be regarded as hostis humani generis
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  sourcegrift
  I wish more people understood the severity of the situation but all we ever get is that "New York has been underwater since 2010". Do people really want to take action only after the problem is irreversibly bad!?
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  tantaman
  How are people handling this... mentally? and preparedness wise? I can't imagine what the next generation may have to live through.
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  tsoukase
  This ship has sailed, warming is irreversible. Developing nations mainly in Asia (China, India etc) are, well, developing and burn like there is no tomorrow. But they are not to blame. It is their turn to live nicely, like the US and Europe did for decades. Nobody can remove this right from them.
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  blueeon
  I am in Wuhan, China. This past winter, I was able to bike along the lake all day. In previous winters, due to the cold and strong winds, we rarely exercised by the lake. This has had the biggest impact on me, and it's still a positive one.
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  mbgerring
  The only extant “X-risk” is, and always has been, climate change. “AGI” is science fiction, and actually-existing AI is making climate change harder to deal with, by increasing electricity demand on our fossil-fuel-powered grid with no attendant increase in clean generation.Serious engineers need to stop whatever they’re doing and work on this problem.Also, if you’re hiring: I’m an expert on the U.S. regulated utility industry, demand management, and solar & battery system design, fabrication and deployment.
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  throwway120385
  We might actually hit the jackpot from The Peripheral.
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  shrubby
  We could chop of a quarter of total emissions (directly + rewilding effect) by ending factory animal production and swapping to plant based.Another quarter from the top 5 percent emissions that have practically nothing to do with the wellbeing, but only social comparison mechanisms (envy, herd mentality).But for that humanity would need leaders that are not either idiots, corrupt or spineless and toothless.But hey, I guess that's too much to ask, after all we're talking about unconscious reactive species that's only rumored to have brains or morals.
• JohnMakin
  Don't Look Up
• epolanski
  World is plagued by consumerism and gaslighted into over focusing on relatively smaller energy savings instead of overall habits.I have friends shoving sausages and burgers into them while ordering countless things on Amazon every day, yet they think they help by buying a hybrid car, couldn't even be bothered by using public transport even though it's faster and cheaper where they live, because "too many people, dirty".Go figure.
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  bigattichouse
  I'm hoping the current oil-war will cause people to re-assess fossil fuel use as expense becomes untenable and we start choosing electric vehicles and renewables.. which will just become "normal" and oil can stick around for synthetic chemistry routes.
• anon
  undefined
• ben5
  I think we're well past the point of no return. In my part of the world, this year's weather has been ---- weird. Global warming doesn't mean warming per se - but it does mean unpredictability.
• storus
  I am wondering how much did war in Ukraine contribute to it? On one hand, EU is pushing green agenda, on the other hand there are daily oil storage facility explosions evaporating weeks of oil consumption in a few hours.
• yowlingcat
  I'd be interested to see what things look like on a longer timescale, say 500, 1000, 2000, 7000 years. 80 years of time feels like a long time on a human lifescale, but on a civilizational timescale it is a lot shorter.
• djoldman
  Basically this is the slowest train wreck in history that just won't be stopped. By 2050 (only 24 years away), these cities are projected to flood more than 1/3 of the days of every year: Galveston, Texas Morgan’s Point, Texas Annapolis, Maryland Norfolk, Virginia Rockport, Texas Bay St. Louis, Mississippi Big cities close behind the above: Miami and Miami Beach, Florida Charleston, South Carolina Atlantic City, New Jersey
• WindyTree
  I’ve heard hints of this same thing, the rates are described as quadratic, not linear. The feedback mechanisms I do not know, but it’s something related to a high degree of released ocean warming that was stored.
• anon
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• anon
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• vogu66
  The article has comments on pubpeer (below) and comments on the pre-print page. https://pubpeer.com/publications/973ABFB81F504E8CB1B50E941CF...The gist of several comments is that the paper does not actually demonstrate an accelerated global warming, but instead an acceleration of anthropogenic global warming, when removing the influence of several natural factors. To be clear, they are not discussing the fact that there is global warming, just saying that currently, we cannot say that global warming has been getting faster after 2010 with statistical certainty.
• dismalaf
  Let's be real, this won't be solved by reducing consumption, only carbon capture technology (likely well into the future).It's in no nation's interest, from a game theory perspective, to stunt their own growth to reduce emissions. If the US stops, Russia and China will destroy the west. If China stops, they'll never catch up technologically. Ditto for India. Smaller nations have even less incentive (they'll easily be conquered by neighbours), except for the ones surrounded entirely by friendly nations...
• madman2890
  We need the government to release the alien technology to the public now.
• jongjong
  Unfortunately, I can't accept the climate change narrative because I've been doing my own research.I've lived in multiple countries and came back to visit after decades. I didn't notice any change of temperature. Some years are slightly warmer, some years are slightly cooler but they all feel within the norm from how I can remember. I remember some very bad heat-waves during my childhood which I've never experienced again.I know this is anecdotal evidence, but it's MY anecdotal evidence which I gathered first-hand and therefore I can trust. I gathered many data points over several decades.Also I have many alternative narratives which better fit the data. I've identified some critical flaws in climate models related to simulation complexity and also plant evolution, both backed by professional insights and independent scientific observations.So unfortunately, I just don't believe current narratives about climate change. The data doesn't fit that narrative, it fits other narratives much better.
• alansaber
  Only good news these days eh
• BLKNSLVR
  Can we hope that the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially blocked to oil exports for an extended amount of time...?
• beastman82
  the good news is that nuclear power is coming soon
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  santiagobasulto
  What! you're saying that my selective recycling of paper and having the plastic caps attached to the bottles didn't work? SHOCKING(only europeans will understand)
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  tlogan
  The sad reality is that much of the climate work done in the West does not matter because China, India, and the rest of the world are not involved.
• jjtheblunt
  curiosity rabbit hole spawned from the article, which got me wondering if the earth axis precession over ~26k years influences ice ages and those cycles:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
• sealthedeal
  Oh no!!! The Earth is Earthing!
• pvaldes
  Dropping bombs has accelerated significantly. The last one to leave, turn the light off.
• nsxwolf
  We already mined enough uranium for 500+ years of energy but people want to bury it in a mountain instead.
• pstuart
  There's plenty of money to be made mitigating this, unfortunately, there's plenty of money currently being made causing this, and those moneymakers are the ones in power and are happy to kill the planet as long as they themselves can live in luxury while it happens.
• 0ckpuppet
  Until they ban private jets, why take this seriously?
• zer0zzz
  This entire thread is a demonstration in how doomed we are.
• BurningFrog
  Coordinating shared sacrifice between 7 billion people was always unlikely to achieve much. There are good workarounds though. I think this is what will/should happen:1. For now, we can cool Earth artificially. 1 gram of SO₂ in the stratosphere offsets the warming effect of 1 ton of CO₂. It's known to be safe and effective. This company is already doing it: https://makesunsets.com2. Fossil fuels will be phased out over the next few decades, but CO₂ stays in the atmosphere for several centuries. The practical solution will probably have to be "carbon sequestration", where you capture CO₂ from the air and pump it underground where it stays forever. Such storage is mature tech in the natural gas industry, but the capturing CO₂ tech needs a lot of work.
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  paganel
  It's also closely correlated with this not very happy decision put in place in 2020 [1]:> On 1 January 2020, a new limit on the sulphur content in the fuel oil used on board ships came into force, marking a significant milestone to improve air quality, preserve the environment and protect human health.
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  spwa4
  Was anybody really expecting anything else? The only factor that would matter is if oil producing nations STOP producing oil entirely. Not reduce, not limit, stop. Same with coal and other small contributions. Note: limiting exports, CO2 limits in oil customer states, ... all of that just doesn't matter. And, obviously, this is just not on the table. There is no way these nations will make such a decision because what it would mean for their economy. Plus it wouldn't matter unless they all make that decision.
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  TimorousBestie
  A weird title.The content of the paper is summed up as “everyone felt like the climate changed after 2015, the data up to 2023 was inconclusive; we finally have enough to prove it with 95% confidence.”EDIT: The title is weird because it’s generic to the point of being unsearchable. I’m not disputing the facts of the paper.
• kai_mac
  capitalism is going just great
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  SoftTalker
  "since 1945"
• a456463
  And yet yesterday people were gushing about more toxic waste from Apple!
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  lapcat
  See also from yesterday, "Rising carbon dioxide levels now detected in human blood" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47261968
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  ck2
  Basically the oceans are way way way too hot which is melting even the most ancient ice and that can never be undone in our lifetimes (well maybe from a nuclear winter)USA is about to have another El Nino summer which will be scorching from overheating oceansBut don't worry, USA is solving the problem by Biden banning cheap electric cars and Trump ending electric subsidies entirely, forcing coal plants to restart
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  captainbland
  Today: thisTomorrow: trillions invested in new technology for simulating human torture accurately at the molecular level, requiring twice the level of all consumer electricity use on the planet. Advocates claim "all use is valid".
• tren_hard
  [dead]
• corisco
  [dead]
• corisco
  [dead]
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  pjmlp
  What a surprise with all the wars going on, and AI depleting Earth resources, what a change from about the pandemic era when everyone was into paper straws and cups and promising to be a better person, because that is what was going to change anything.
• gedy
  All those RTO commuters /s
• gethly
  [flagged]
• draw_down
  Oops you forgot this part:> Here we account for the influence of three main natural variability factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation.Whoops! Whoopsies! Oopsy doodles!
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  SV_BubbleTime
  [flagged]
• Invictus0
  absolutely nothing can be done about this
• honkycat
  we have had several manhattan project in the last 100 years, but they have all been for stuff like:- creating a new addictive form of entertainment we can use to brainwash people- Creating expensive data centers that MAY end up being extremely useful in the long runand never for saving the lives of the people on our planet.Humanity is doomed. We deserve it.
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  dcchambers
  There's literally nothing that can be done about it. The people with actual ability to make a change don't care.We're going to have to figure out how to adapt to it. Expect many of the things you love now (seafood, coffee, etc) to be gone within your lifetime.
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  pluc
  Yeah but now you can ask a question instead of providing a search term!
• renewiltord
  This is true, but sometimes I wonder if it is the biggest problem. Fortunately, the local environmental organizations explained to me that while it is a big problem it is much more important that we oppose infill housing and embrace sprawl because the former causes shadows to fall on parks used by underserved minorities.Another thing I have wondered is whether it is ethical to oppose solar power because I don’t like how it looks. Again here the environmentalists have an answer. Yes it is.Recently I was wondering about geothermal power as well, but I learned that the good people of black rock city believe that we should leave no trace and a geothermal plant would leave a trace so it’s far preferable to drive a large number of ICE vehicles to the desert.In general, I think that we probably exaggerate climate change a lot. It’s not a big deal, at least when compared to things like sunshine for a park for underserved minorities.
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  xyzelement
  As an observation, global warming has completely disappeared as social concern in the last few years. Great that someone is still publishing research, but it seems like being a climate scientist has gone from hottest field to nobody cares.
• htx80nerd
  let me guess we only have 10 more years, again?
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  ndiddy
  I don't see the US doing anything about global warming regardless of who's in charge. China has won on manufacturing cheap wind/solar energy and is scaling up their cheap EV manufacturing right now. Trump is definitely accelerating China's future dominance by completely forgoing anything related to developing or manufacturing green tech in favor of fossil fuels, but I think both parties would rather get into a conflict with China than cooperate with them and purchase their energy tech to deploy domestically. Solar and wind power are already far cheaper than coal or natural gas, and are much quicker to deploy, but the US government would much rather prop up the domestic fossil fuel industry than cooperate with China on renewables because fossil fuel is where all the incumbent money is.
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  Qiu_Zhanxuan
  This is All on the US
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  PowerElectronix
  And yet the minimum extension of artic ice ever recorded was in 2014.I think there are more effects to account for when extrapolating measured temperatures, mostly made on the ground with cataclismic effects. After all, all the carbon being emitted nowadays was in the biosphere back in the days. Why couldn't it return back to it without the earth becoming inhabitable?
• karol
  It's gonna be great, when it's warmer.
• oxqbldpxo
  For a 1000 points: For the turkey, what is Thanksgiving? What is a Black swan?
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  cryptoegorophy
  If it is too late to do anything, why should we care? We can’t reverse it, so why should we care about slow down?
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  r2ob
  El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation.it's not about us guys, relax.
• fragkakis
  Isn't it an irony that much of this is in the name of resolving World Problems, such as Global Warming
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  code4life
  Where i live, we had the coldest winter on record in 30 years. I’m going with that.
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  cetinsert
  Good! Won't change a thing in how I live my life!
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  small_model
  "Preprints and early-stage research may not have been peer reviewed yet."I have a paper that says Global Warming is not real (Also not peer reviewed)
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  mrs6969
  So some people made up something called ai, made millions of people out of jobs, big scams in market, filled internet with rubbish things, killed people with delusional chatbots, killed the planet, and all to make themselves rich.If I do this, this would have been a crime. Nothing more.
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  fvv
  I believe that as soon as nuclear fusion becomes operational (and perhaps AI could be of great help in this regard in the next 5 years),all the carbon storage methods (efficient and otherwise) studied so far could be immediately put into action.In addition to the immediate reduction in the use of fossil fuels for energy production, the scenario could be completely changed in 10 years, water could be desalinated, desertification reversed, etc.Free and unlimited energy would be the solution to everything. The question is whether we will get there before it's too late... and perhaps AI is the answer?