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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

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Comments (447)

  • solenoid0937
    These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet.I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.
  • throwawa1
    When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket. Its a level worse than Vegas or Indian casinos. A literal ticket to hell. I'm all for banning these evil sites.
  • torcete
    > Spain's Consumer Rights Ministry temporarily banned so-called prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi [..]Why a ministry has the authority to do so? What I don't like about my country, and the whole UE, is the lack of democracy. And this is a good example.A democracy needs to have real separations of powers. The legislative body creates a law, and the judiciary, based on that law, will decide on banning or not the online gambling site.A ministry belongs to the executive branch of the Estate. It is not up to them to decide whether something is illegal or not.
  • schnitzelstoat
    I’m surprised these haven’t already been banned tbh.It doesn’t make sense that if I bet on the outcome of a football match then it’s gambling but if I bet on the outcome of the Ukraine war then it’s I-can’t-believe-it’s-not-gambling.
  • linuxhansl
    Good.Just naming things differently does not work in other countries.If it quacks like a duck, swims like a duck, and looks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.
  • everdrive
    I don't usually see advertisements, but I was in a position recently to see a real-life television stream, and I was quite surprised to see them run an advertisement for Kalshi. I was pretty surprised that something like this would be advertised to normal people. I'd half expect the next ad to be for a hitman, or for beating your wife, or something. Seems crazy that this is tolerated whatsoever.
  • bilekas
    > Spain - like other European jurisdictions - considers prediction markets a form of gambling when bets are placed on uncertain outcomes.What is the defense in the US for example that these are not gambling, "bets are placed on uncertain outcomes", it's that close to, if not the definition of gambling ?
  • mentalgear
    The only societally rational thing to do. Cheers to Spain for being a global humanitarian leader on this and many other global issues! (I am worried though by the extreme-right forces trying to throw over the government though.)
  • afinlayson
    Didn't we learn our lesson in SimCity? Crime went up when you added a casino.. but governments gained a little tax revenue... We seem to get the crime (see insider trading) but no tax revenue... Maybe I'm just showing my age...
  • jorl17
    I sincerely hope these abominations made to either enrich the corrupt/immoral or prey on the addicted are made illegal during my lifetime.
  • felooboolooomba
    People wonder how bad prediction markets are going to get. I think it's going to get a lot worse. If left unchecked it'll en up like the 1997 paper "Assassination politics" describes:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Bell#%22Assassination_Poli...
  • ceasesurthinko
    Yet blocks the internet completely decimating all necessary services for a couple hours for La Liga futbol. Spain is a backwards country
  • morelandjs
    If anyone from Kalshi or Polymarket is reading this: your advertising is reprehensible. Dumb bros bragging about getting rich betting on the weather. Cringey get-rich-quick influencers. No one believes for a second your claims that prediction markets serve the public good. I’ve never wanted an industry to fail so badly.
  • satvikpendem
    Interesting comments here. I'd rather have prediction markets than casinos or sports betting services, because in the latter, you're playing again the house which can and will ban you for winning too much, while prediction markets are simply market makers taking a fee.Prediction markets are also regulated by the CFTC as they're futures contracts technically.
  • ropable
    Kalshi, Polymarket and every other prediction market should have been drowned at birth by regulators. They offer zero positive utility to the world. I hope that we follow Spain's example here in Australia; we have a hard enough time with legal gambling as it is.
  • seydor
    please stop calling them prediction markets. It's not even accurate, you do not buy a prediciton
  • LanceH
    I find it humorous that these are simultaneously attacked as being gambling and attacked because some people know more than others and are "betting" on a sure thing.
  • navs
    I'm still astounded that Polymarket, as a feature, is embedded inside Substack. Not a third-party plugin but baked into the platform. YouTube is one thing. It's practically ubiquitous in terms of video sharing but Polymarket?
  • gepiti
    Greece does the same.
  • Falimonda
    Good. Now ban sports betting.
  • anon
    undefined
  • bastard_op
    It ought to be illegal everywhere, the only reason it won't be in the US is the president is on the grift with his kids operating on the boards of them.
  • ddp26
    I see a lot of comments like this is the blocking of prediction markets about politics, war, etc.It's important to remember that ~80% of activity Polymarket and ~90% of Kalshi, by volume, are sports. These are effectively sports betting websites with prediction markets on the side.
  • anon
    undefined
  • imagetic
    Good
  • josefritzishere
    Well, that makes perfect sense. The whole world will eventually do the same. gambling with software is still gambling, just like accounting with software is still accounting.
  • deaton
    Oh so finally someone is calling a spade a spade.
  • fHr
    good
  • InveStar
    Interesting!
  • UltraSane
    The main way betting markets can increase accuracy is by making it profitable for insiders to leak secret information.
  • spwa4
    Are they still doing blocks so configuring either Google's DNS or Cloudflare DNS will still unblock the sites?
  • ethin
    Good. Now take the next step and ban them outright.
  • kome
    well, it's gambling.
  • paul_knox
    [dead]
  • Romanulus
    [dead]
  • cucumber3732842
    [flagged]
  • marcosvm
    [flagged]
  • MrJobbo
    [flagged]
  • ai_slop_hater
    [flagged]
  • stackedinserter
    [flagged]
  • jespinel
    [flagged]
  • christkv
    Lol it could not possibly be the coincidence that there were bets on ex prime minister Zapatero going to jail before the 30th of June or other meme bets making the rounds in Spain in the last couple of days.
  • throwawaypath
    Polymarket is a casino. A roulette wheel is not a "market". You can't beat the house.
  • _diyar
    These services run on the blockchain, right? So in effect, there is no blocking them.
  • delichon
    They require no gambling license to be a stock broker on the Bolsa de Madrid stock exchange.
  • sd9
    It's not cut and dry to differentiate between the act and the wager.One issue is that prediction markets provide financial incentives to perform actions in the real world. For example, if I want a head of state murdered, I can wager lots of money that they won't be murdered. If somebody wants to earn that money, they can simply bet against me and then murder them.It's not an dispassionate wager like betting on roulette, it's a wager that directly influences the real world, at least a bit.Of course you could directly hire an assassin, but that doesn't come with plausible deniability.