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AI is hitting entry-level jobs hardest, Stanford study finds

AI is hitting entry-level jobs hardest, Stanford study finds

Brajeshwar

Comments (139)

  • gen220
    I think it's challenging to disentangle the effects from AI from the cyclical supply and demand cycle of junior engineers in a post-ZIRP world.People who are currently junior engineers (i.e. graduating class of 2024+) chose their majors in a ZIRP economy (2021 and earlier) that could not hire enough engineers fast enough, but graduated into an economy that was post-ZIRP and is still actively trimming software engineers from the work force (2024 and beyond).LLMs only became a factor in hiring in the summer of 2025. But by then there was already a massive oversupply (relative to demand) of fresh CS graduates.My personal opinion is that the market is not (yet) rough because of AI, it's actually mostly just rough because we're not in ZIRP anymore. AI is maybe making it worse on the margin, and is a convenient excuse, insofar as its easier to both scapegoat and reason about.
  • dver
    It's brutal, my son with a CS degree hasn't been able to get to single live interview ina year. A couple of screens has been it. I've reached out to my network, and the reply is always we're not hiring any juniors.
  • Zigurd
    The article assumes that jobs that can be automated are vulnerable. But in the postmortem of the AI driven layoffs so far, it's more that expectations about AI and productivity are driving the job cuts.In other words shareholders and senior management are being shown the appearance of expectations about AI being met, whether or not it's working. Entry-level jobs are an obvious place to look things that can be cut to create an AI budget.
  • armcat
    It's interesting because a study here in Sweden [1] produces identical results. To quote from the study:"An event study documents an accelerating decline in employment of 22–25-year-olds in high-AI-exposure occupations, reaching 5.5 per cent by early 2025 relative to less exposed occupations within the same employers"[1] Same Storm, Different Boats: Generative AI and the Age Gradient in Hiring, Lodefalk et al, https://www.oru.se/globalassets/oru-sv/institutioner/hh/work...
  • suriyaG
    this is a super non-popular take on HN.but the entry-level job market has always been tough.with AI, outside the big tech world, it is hard to justify hiring entry level engineers as the time to train them ( 1 year+ ) to be productive enough is such a drag on the seniors, when the agents deliver things more care and more edge cases.
  • fny
    The implosion in junior quality exacerbates this.The cohort that started during COVID were first knee-capped by remote classes and exams, and then they lobotomized themselves with ChatGPT.
  • throwayay4929
    1. The papers author's never claim causality. 2. There are other large macro forces at play, like firm consolidation, proliferation of NDAs, interest rates*, lack of growth (without Nvidia, the US economy would basically be in a recession?) and probably many more that are putting the job market into a low hire/low fire state.Consider how we're actually not seeing much layoffs (some, but not much). So what were seeing in tech specifically is more like hiring freeze, so people with experience or in jobs aren't feeling much of the pressure, but new grads are hitting a wall.Im posting this to resist the "ai is taking away people's jobs" narrative. It's definitely a factor but it's probably one of many and it's sloppy thinking to point fingers at ai and not other probably bigger factors.* To their credit, the papers author's try to factor for zirp.
  • d_burfoot
    Partly this is because the big companies are diverting vast amounts of money towards building data centers, instead of hiring new grads. I expect young people who learn AI skills will be fine, once the data center spending binge is over.
  • remotedreamer
    Sadly, this is just the beginning.. As AI models improve in performance and cost, each technical job level will be replaced until it's just C-suites managing a bunch of ai agents.
  • joey9prints
    I built a digital internship for this very reason, to help the pre-entry level interns get work experience. Given ai has mostly replaced their admin work load. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48914589
  • anon
    undefined
  • heathrow83829
    i remember seeing the stats presented on moonshots podcast about 3 months ago. they said every quarter, the percentage of CS fresh grads decreased their placement roughly 10% or so and it was down to about 19% at last count and entry level salaries down from 96K to 61k, if i recall.
  • jeremyw
  • 1970-01-01
    When do we declare this status-quo? It was expected for several years, and new data is just piling up with the same conclusions from the last study.
  • jambalaya8
    Most of these jobs were already essentially taken away by outsourcing. It is so disturbing that countries like Australia only offer work visas for jobs that are difficult to fill, and only in certain locations as needed, but America actually encourages the ouster of skilled local talent for immigrants.
  • Alien1Being
    AI VENDOR HYPE
  • danans
    Another impact that doesn't get discussed as much when the primary discussion is around job elimination is the downward pressure on software engineering salaries. Of course it's a different scenario if you are working at a frontier AI company, but outside of that, software engineers are becoming cheaper (relative to inflation) while they simultaneously get more productive due to LLMS.
  • deadbabe
    It’s not just juniors in CS. If you lose your job, you’re not getting another one. You better not quit your job without having a new one lined up. Many have had to retire early.
  • ofjcihen
    So we have a crunch of expiring/retiring workers on the senior end and a cutoff of the flow of new talent from the junior end.They’d better pray that we see automation gains above and beyond what we’ve seen so far or else we’ll be paying the price in a single generation.
  • cheesecakegood
    I feel like we need to take a page from the past. Apprenticeships with lock-in. Sponsorships. And so on.Imagine if even one billionaire dedicated themselves to be a modern “patron of the arts” on a more down-to-earth level. Imagine if people started to run “adopt-a-student” type frameworks for individuals. If fresh grads found it easy to get “grants” for things. And so on.The first job is often a bit “take a chance on me” in its paradigm, but companies these days don’t want bets, they want sure things. Unfortunately this is to some extent unrealistic, but also it’s true that cutting out entry level roles entirely does cut down on uncertainty. It cuts down on upside too, but that’s more invisible.
  • jdw64
    I wish there were studies on when this situation will normalize. Will the lost jobs ever come back? Or not?
  • nguwi
    [flagged]
  • LogTrim
    [dead]
  • cynicalsecurity
    Soft people learn that the world is harsh and you either adapt or die.
  • brid
    No, not AI. AI isn't hitting entry level jobs hardest. People and Businesses are by having "AI substituting for labor".If we do not pursue the common good of humanity with AI, we will destroy humanity with AI.
  • greenowl
    The plus side of all this is that entry level software development jobs are typically pursued by recent college graduates. They are young.While it sucks to have blown a lot of money and accept they've been duped to get a degree in something that is now "worth" a small fraction of what it once was, time is on their side. There is plenty of time to go back to school, or apprentice, or learn a trade or go to trade school in something else with better long term career prospects.On the opposite side of this, senior level devs should (hopefully) be on target financially and theoretically should be fine, especially if they make adjustments now (lower COL, layoff preparation, prepare for accelerated retirement timeline).The folks who are really going to suffer are those early to mid level developers. Not as much of a network, not enough traditional expertise, not enough savings, not as much time to invest and pull the trigger on a career change.
  • boshalfoshal
    To the surprise of who, exactly? Sometimes it feels like HN has never used an AI model past ChatGPT in 2022. Modern AI is so capable nowadays that it _does_ obviate most of the work you'd normally give an entry level person.Im mostly speaking about software engineering, but the "juniors" I've seen be hired now are basically the equivalent of mid (maybe even low senior) levels of yesteryear. AI is most certainly raising the bar.